Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Jan 06 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 December 2008 - 04 January 2009

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless during the entire summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels during the entire summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes on 29-30 December. By 31 December, field activity increased to quiet to unsettled, with periods of active to minor storm levels observed at high latitudes on 31 December and 01 January. This activity was due to a co-rotating interaction region, followed by a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. These conditions persisted through midday on 01 January when the field returned to quiet levels. By early on 03 January, the field returned to mostly unsettled levels with an isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes midday on the 3rd. This activity was due to a secondary increase in wind speed from the same coronal hole. By late on the 3rd, the field returned to quiet levels and remained so for the balance of the summary period. ACE solar wind measurements began the period with a speed of about 310 km/s, reached a preliminary high of 559 km/s at 31/1141 UTC, with a secondary high of 555 km/s at 03/1442 UTC, and ended the summary period at about 435 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between -16 nT (31/0131 UTC) and +14 nT (31/0004UTC).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 January - 02 February 2009


Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal background levels the entire forecast period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during 07 - 17 January. Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods at high latitudes during 18 - 19 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 20 - 26 January. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes during 27 - 30 January due to another recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 31 January - 02 February.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jan 06 1922 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Jan 06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Jan 07 70 5 2
2009 Jan 08 70 5 2
2009 Jan 09 70 5 2
2009 Jan 10 70 5 2
2009 Jan 11 70 5 2
2009 Jan 12 70 5 2
2009 Jan 13 70 5 2
2009 Jan 14 70 5 2
2009 Jan 15 70 5 2
2009 Jan 16 70 5 2
2009 Jan 17 70 5 2
2009 Jan 18 70 8 3
2009 Jan 19 70 8 3
2009 Jan 20 70 5 2
2009 Jan 21 70 5 2
2009 Jan 22 70 5 2
2009 Jan 23 70 5 2
2009 Jan 24 70 5 2
2009 Jan 25 70 5 2
2009 Jan 26 70 5 2
2009 Jan 27 70 8 3
2009 Jan 28 70 10 4
2009 Jan 29 70 8 3
2009 Jan 30 70 8 3
2009 Jan 31 70 5 2
2009 Feb 01 70 5 2
2009 Feb 02 70 5 2
(NOAA)